Director, US Forecasting & Analytics– Vaccines & Immune Therapies

The Director, US Forecasting & Analytics – Vaccines & Immune Therapies is a senior commercial insights leader responsible for US demand forecasting and analytics across the V&I portfolio. The role is predominantly forecast-focused, serving as the US forecasting lead and strategic thought partner to Marketing, Finance, Market Access, and US teams. The role also includes people leadership, vendor management, and forecasting-adjacent analytics leadership to ensure the effective deployment of analytical resources and continuous evolution of forecasting and insight capabilities within V&I. Time allocation may vary by business cycle and portfolio priorities. This position plays a critical role in shaping commercial expectations, risk and opportunity framing, and executive decision-making for in-market and late-stage pipeline vaccines and immune therapies.

What you'll do

US Forecasting Leadership (Core Accountability)

• Lead US short-term and long-term demand forecasts (TRx, NBRx, volume, patients, revenue) for V&I assets using robust, patient-based and market-based models

• Own forecast methodology, assumptions, and governance, ensuring objectivity, transparency, and consistency with enterprise standards

• Integrate primary market research, epidemiology, competitive intelligence, access dynamics, and real-world data into forecast models

• Proactively identify and quantify key risks and opportunities through scenario and sensitivity analyses

• Partner closely with Finance, Market Access & Pricing, Marketing, Sales, Medical, and Global Forecasting to ensure alignment on assumptions and implications

• Support business planning, governance reviews, and opportunity assessments with clear, executive-ready narratives

• Serve as a trusted advisor to senior marketing and finance leadership, clearly articulating forecast drivers and changes

Analytics & Resource Leadership (Enablement)

• Provide leadership over forecasting-adjacent analytics, ensuring advanced analytics and insights are embedded into forecasting and business planning

• Manage and prioritize internal analysts, contractors, and external vendors supporting forecasting and analytics deliverables

• Partner with data analytics resources, Global IA&F, and GIBEX capability teams to deploy new tools, data sources, and modeling approaches

• Champion and identify new ways to embed AI and advanced automation into the practice of data analytics and forecasting to drive efficiency, scalability, and decision quality

• Champion continuous improvement in forecasting processes, AI-enabled modeling, and automation

• Contribute to the development and sharing of best practices across the V&I forecasting community

Essential for the role

• Bachelor’s degree in a quantitative, scientific, or business-related field required (e.g., Statistics, Economics, Mathematics, Engineering, Computer/Data Science).

• 8+ years’ experience in US pharmaceutical commercial forecasting, including in-market and late-stage pipeline assets

• Hands-on model ownership experience (build, refresh, and performance tracking) across short- and long-term horizons

• Expertise in scenario-based forecasting, sensitivity analysis, and driver-based narratives to support senior decision-making

• Strong capability integrating multiple data types (e.g., IQVIA, claims, epidemiology, RWD/RWE, primary research) into coherent, decision-grade forecasts

• Working knowledge of advanced analytics/ML approaches (e.g., time series, causal inference, ensembles) and where they add value vs. traditional methods

• Fluency in modern analytics tooling and automation (e.g., Python/R/SQL, BI/visualization), with ability to partner effectively with data engineering and analytics teams

• Demonstrated forecast governance and model risk discipline (traceable assumptions, documentation, and clear explanations)

• Strong understanding of US market access and payer dynamics and how they impact demand (coverage, contracting, channel, policy)

• Exceptional communication: translates complex analysis into clear, executive-ready insights, options, and recommendations

• Strong commercial competence across key demand levers (positioning, adoption, competitive dynamics, lifecycle events)

Desirable for the role

• Advanced degree preferred (e.g., MBA, MS, PhD in Statistics, Economics, Decision Sciences, Data Science, or related discipline).

• Vaccines and/or Rare Disease experience, including familiarity with immunization dynamics, patient-based forecasting, and lifecycle management in preventive or immune-mediated therapies

• Change leadership: builds adoption for new tools, processes, and ways of working across cross-functional stakeholders

• Product mindset for forecasting: defines user needs, success metrics, and a roadmap for portfolio forecasting capabilities

• Model lifecycle practices (e.g., reproducibility, versioning, monitoring/drift awareness); familiarity with MLOps concepts

Office Working Requirements

When we put unexpected teams in the same room, we unleash bold thinking with the power to inspire life-changing medicines. In-person working gives us the platform we need to connect, work at pace and challenge perceptions. That’s why we work, on average, a minimum of three days per week from the office. But that doesn’t mean we’re not flexible. We balance the expectation of being in the office while respecting individual flexibility. Join us in our unique and ambitious world.

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